Integrated Traffic Model

The Integrated Traffic Model (ZMR) is a passenger multimodal model that maps the Average Daily Annual Traffic (ADR) between all municipalities in Poland by individual and public transport, which includes rail and bus connections. During the calculation process, the interaction of competing modes of transportation is taken into account. This is a key element from the point of view of traffic forecasts, where it is possible to consider road and rail investments in parallel. In order to represent actual traffic conditions, truck traffic on roads was additionally included in the ZMR.

In the process of the interaction of the various modes of transport, the key aspects that travelers are guided by are taken into account, namely:

• travel distance,
• travel time,
• monetary costs incurred.

The ZMR is a fully four-stage traffic model that includes full calculations for baseline and forecast models at the following stages:

1. Traffic generation – determines the number of trips starting and ending in each municipality.
2. Spatial distribution of traffic – determines the number of trips between each pair of municipalities (traffic bond).
3. Transportation task breakdown – determines the probability of travel by public transportation and individual transportation for each pair of municipalities.
4. Traffic distribution for the network – selects travel routes for all trips between municipalities, both for public transport and individual transport.

A baseline model for 2022 was developed. Forecast models for 2030, 2040 and 2050 were created based on the assumptions made and verified for the baseline model, along with an analogous calculation structure for the model of demand and traffic distribution on the network, taking into account changes on the transportation network and socio-demographic changes.

The ZMR is a tool to support the fulfillment of the European Commission’s baseline condition for financing transport investments in the 2021-2027 perspective.

With such a tool in place, the ZMR makes it possible to support ministries and other institutions that provide public services in the transportation sector in the planning and investment decision-making process.

We have also prepared the ZMR as an instrument to support planning at the regional and local levels, which can stem from both the national model and emerging regional models.