CEUTP report: From commuter rail to metro. Analysis of options for developing high-capacity transport in Polish metropolitan areas

At the request of the Minister of Infrastructure, the Centre for EU Transport Projects (CEUTP) has prepared a strategic report that assesses whether building metros and other high-capacity rail systems makes sense in Poland’s 12 largest metropolitan areas. The study draws, among other things, on economic data, traffic modelling and a detailed analysis of what local governments can afford.

Growing passenger flows, pressure to decarbonise urban mobility, and the challenges of stable local government finances and civil security: these are the main factors behind the comprehensive study CEUTP carried out.

The report answers an important question facing Polish metropolitan areas: which transport technologies will bring the greatest social and economic benefit without upsetting the long-term budget balance of cities?

To keep the method consistent, the study used a range of tools:

• Integrated Traffic Model (ZMR): passenger flow forecasts for time horizons up to 2025 and 2050.
• European benchmarking: a comparison of Polish cities with a database of 34 European Union metropolitan areas.
• Urban and transport scoring: an assessment of building density, network structure and development potential on a scale of 0-100 points.
• Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and operating costs (OPEX): with particular attention to local governments’ ability to maintain the infrastructure later.
• In-depth analysis of external risks: including climate resilience, geological challenges, and defence and dual-use functions (dual-use).

Key findings: technology tailored to needs and budget

The analysis gives a clear message: there is no single solution for every city, and the key to success is matching the technology to the scale and needs of the metropolitan area.

The authors stress that the release of the report does not close the topic. It invites a nationwide, evidence-based debate on the future of Polish mobility.

“Today’s release of the report does not close the topic. It opens a broad dialogue on how to develop transport in Polish cities wisely and responsibly. We want decisions on investments worth billions to rest on hard data, not on emotion. CEUTP offers its full help, knowledge and analytical resources to the Ministry and to local governments that want to analyse their needs and choose the most effective solutions.” says Joanna Lech, Director of CEUTP.

Work with us

CEUTP is fully open to cooperation with local governments, industry and the scientific community. We want the report to become a living tool that helps decision-makers make the best decisions and prepare strong funding applications.

CEUTP’s analytical team can help with:

• organising dedicated workshops and consultations for local government units,
• preparing in-depth micro-analyses for interested metropolitan areas,
• methodological support in assessing financing options, forecasting traffic and calculating operating costs (OPEX).

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